Thursday, November 6, 2014

KOpikia talk.........................FIAMMA HOLDINGS BHD

FIAMMA HOLDINGS BHD
 I read an articles in i3 Investor.com which publish by KIASUTRADER its interesting...... 
Fiamma stands to benefit from the housing boom of  the last 2-3 years.While  its  distribution  business  is  experiencing  annual  resilient  growth of  4-13%, property development is a new growth driver.  A  few  strategic land parcels  are  now  held  at low  costs, which mean  high development margins. The company is  also in a net cash position. Based on our SOP valuations, the stock could be valued at MYR3.20-3.30.
Distribution:  a  resilient business. Fiamma distributes home appliances and  has  a  property  development  division,  which  indirectly  and  directly ride  on  the  local  property  cycle  respectively.  Despite  the  housing market’s  mini  ups and  downs,  its  distribution  segment  has  achieved  4-13%  growth  per  annum  previously.  It  has  been  strong  in  the  home appliances  market  with  a  wide  distribution  network  nationwide.  This segment typically yields 30-40% gross margins.   
Property  –  a  new  source  of  growth.  Fiamma  will  see  a  new  growth driver  led  by  its  property  development  wing.  The  market  may  not  be aware of this  business  as yet,  but it  contributes  ~25% of total turnover.While  Fiamma’s  existing Centara project is expected to be completed in Oct/Nov 2014, it has >MYR1bn worth of projects in the pipeline, including MYR600m  high-rise  developments  at  Jalan  Yap  Kwan  Seng  (Kuala Lumpur)  and  the  MYR400m VIDA residenz (Johor Bahru). By end-2015, management  also  plans  to  utilise  its  land  behind  Wisma  Fiamma  for development after an existing warehouse there is moved to Klang. 
Low  land  costs  creates  RNAV  re-rating  angle.  The  property development  division  gives  gross  margins  of  30-35%.  This  trend  is expected to continue as Fiamma’s landbank is carried  at low book costs.The most significant contributor to RNAV is the 1.4-acre Jalan Yap Kwan Seng land, with a  land cost of only MYR631psf. The current market price for land parcels in the vicinity is already going at above MYR3,000 psf.
Net cash now.  Fiamma  is currently in  a  MYR54m  net cash position. We expect it to gear up gradually to ~20-30% over the next two years in view of its upcoming slew of high-rise projects. Dividend payout should remain at about 30%, translating into a decent yield of almost 4%.
MYR3.20-3.30  FV.  Fiamma’s  land  parcels  are  in  deep  value  while  the distribution segment provides stable income growth.  Based on our SOP valuations,  the  stock  could  be  valued  at  MYR3.20-3.30.  It  is  currently trading at an undemanding 6.2x FY15f P/E.


A Beneficiary Of The Housing Boom
Company background
Fiamma started up marketing mainly  the  Elba  brand of electrical home appliances  in 1997. Since then, the company has managed to  pick up a number of other brands to widen its distribution reach. Key brands currently carried include  Elba, Rubine, Faber, MEC,  Tuscani,  Haustern  and  EBAC  Home.  It  also  handles  agency  brands  (sole distributorship)  such as  Omron, Whirlpool  and  Braun.  Given the number of brands  it carries,  Fiamma  has  a  wide  product  range  to  cater  for  the  mass  and  high-endmarkets.  These cover  kitchen appliances, pre-fabricated kitchen cabinets, electrical home appliances, bathroom accessories and sanitary ware.  Currently,  the company has  a  nationwide  distribution  network  and  these  products  are  distributed  mainly  to electrical shops/outlets and hypermarkets.
While the distribution business has been generating resilient earnings, management decided  to  have  property  development  exposure  a  few  years  ago.  In  Dec  2008, Fiamma  completed  the  acquisition  of  two  subsidiaries  –  Uniphoenix  Jaya  SB  and Oaksvilla  SB  –  that  own  landbank  in  Kota  Tinggi,  Johor.  Note  that  property development  is  not  a  new  venture  for  the  company,  as  these  subsidiaries  were previously  owned  by  its  founders.  Over  the  years,  Fiamma  acquired  several  other land parcels, such as the 1.12 acres at Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman and 1.4 acres at Jalan  Yap  Kwan  Seng.  Currently,  the  company’s  distribution  and  property development  segments  contribute  75%  and  25%  of  the  company’s  earnings respectively.
Fiamma is now managed by Mr Lim Choo Hong, who is the CEO/group MD of the company.  Choo Hong, Mr  Lim Soo Kong (non-executive director)  and  Mr Ngo Wee Bin are the founder members and major shareholders. Choo Hong has more than 30 years of experience  in  dealing in home appliances. He also has  more than 15 years of expertise in property development.

Distribution segment – a resilient but high-margin business
Given  the  10  brands and  the wide range of products  it carries, Fiamma’s distribution segment has managed to achieve an average growth of 4-13%  per annum  over the past 4-5 years.  Earnings from this business  have  been rather resilient despite the  yo-y changes in residential property units completion in Malaysia.
The  home  ware  products  are  generally  sourced  from  a  few  original  equipment manufacturers  (OEMs)  and  about  half  of  them  are  distributed  via  external  parties. Going forward, some cost savings can be expected when  its  existing warehouse is moved to Klang, Selangor, from Bandar Manjalara, Kuala Lumpur, as all products will then be distributed  via  its  in-house  logistics.  Currently, transportation costs  make up about 4-5% of  sales.  Hence, this move  should  enhance  Fiamma’s  current  30-40% gross margins  by 2-3%. Among all the brands and products,  Omron  and the  cooking range provide the highest profit margins'

More interesting property angle
We think Fiamma’s property angle is more interesting  one  and will contribute a new phase of growth  to the company. We believe that  the market may not be fully  aware of  this  division  as  yet,  due  to  the  limited  number  of  ongoing  projects.  However, Fiamma’s  presence  in  the  property  market  will  likely  be  broadened  going  forward, given that it has over MYR1bn worth of property projects in the pipeline. Currently  itsexisting Centara project at Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman is  slated for completion  in Oct/Nov,  and  30%  of  the  office  suites  at  Menara  Antara  will  be  kept  as  property investment  assets.  This  ought  to  strengthen  its  pool  of  rental  income-generating assets in addition to the existing Wisma Fiamma building.
By  end-2014,  two  service  apartment  projects  will  be  rolled  out.  This  includes  the MYR600m GDV high-rise developments at Jalan Yap Kwan Seng and the MYR400m VIDA residenz in Johor Bahru. The Jalan Yap Kwan Seng project, with a plot ratio of 10x, is strategically located in the Kuala Lumpur city centre. Development order (DO) for  the  project  was  obtained  two  months  ago  and  it  is  now  pending  finalisation.Indicative pricing for the property units will be at abou t MYR1,200 psf. W e think there is scope for another 8-10% upside,  given the pricing of other recent  launches in the vicinity such as The Mews by Eastern & Oriental (EAST MK, BUY, TP: MYR3.60).VIDA  residenz  is  a  joint-venture  (JV)  project,  whereby  the  land  owner  has  a  30% share of the profits from the development. The project is in a good location within the Johor  Bahru  central  business  district  (CBD)  at  Jalan  Muafakat,  7km  from  the Customs  &  Immigration  Quarantine  Complex  (CIQ).  This  service  apartment  project will be rolled out in two phases.  Phase 1 will comprise 267 units  with a built-up area of 500-900 sqf  at an indicative pricing of MYR500 psf. We believe this  project will be well-received as the pricing is conservative, given the challenging market co nditions in Iskandar Malaysia and considering the fact that new high-rise projects launched by a few Chinese developers recently are mostly going at above MYR750 psf.


To  further  unlock  value  of  its  assets,  management  also  plans  to  redevelop  theexisting  3-acre  warehouse  land  behind  Wisma  Fiamma  in  Bandar  Manjalara  into high-rise service apartments next year. The current warehouse will  be moved to the 6.28-acre  newly-acquired  land  in  Klang  once  its  new  warehouses  are  built.  With a plot ratio of 5x (pending approval), the potential GDV  for the old warehouse land  is estimated at about MYR250-300m, assuming an ASP.  We foresee pent-up demand in this area, as Wisma Fiamma is located within a matured enclave, with schools, commercial precincts and houses already in place.
Management  will  continue  to  grow  the  property  development  division  and  is constantly scouting for landbank. Key targeted areas are still largely within the Klang Valley,  as the market is more sustainable given the  area’s  7.2m population  and its business  activities.  VIDA  residenz  could  be  the  only  Johor  project  over  the  short term, as management holds a cautious stance over the Iskandar Malaysia market.Low land costs create RNAV re-rating angle
The property development division, of which Centara @ Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahmanis  the major  contributor  currently,  gives  gross  margins  of 30-35%,  ie  similar  to  the distribution wing.  This  trend is expected to stay as Fiamma’s landbank is carried at
low book costs, given that most of the development land parcels were acquired many years ago. The most attractive one is the 1.4-acre parcel at Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, which was acquired in 2007 at a  land cost  of  only MYR631 psf. The current market price for land plots in the vicinity is already going at above MYR3,000 psf.  We have assumed  a market value of MYR3,000  psf in our RNAV estimate, which  we think is reasonable, considering that  Magna Prima (MAGNA MK, NR)  is said to be looking to sell its Lai Meng school land at MYR3,300-3,500 psf. This comes with a plot ratio of 12x.  Meanwhile,  according  to  media  reports,  Oxley  Holdings  (OHL  SP,  BUY,  TP: SGD0.91) paid the Loke Wan Yat estate MYR3,300 psf for a 3.1-acre parcel in Jalan Ampang while the  KSK Group (KSK MK, NR) paid MYR3,299 for a 3.95-acre land in Jalan Conlay.
Besides  these,  Fiamma  also  plans  to  sell  its  86  acres  of  leasehold  land  in  Kota Tinggi,  Johor,  as this parcel is not contiguous with  its  other two parcels of freehold land in  the same area (Taman Kota Jaya) that are currently being developed. Hence,it  will have to incur major  infrastructure  capex  if it starts development there.  Some gains can be expected, given its book cost of only MYR4.50 psf.


Earnings forecasts and valuations
Forecasts.  Fiamma’s  distribution  segment  is  expected  to  maintain  a  single-digit growth in FY14 while the earnings from its property development business will largely drive bottomline growth. Going into FY15, the Centara project will be completed, and earnings from VIDA residenz and  the  Jalan Yap Kwan Seng project will start to kick in. We, therefore, estimate 15% growth in FY15 . This  growth is expected to  be more material in FY16 as progress billings from the property developments come in higher.Valuations.  We value  Fiamma at  MYR3.20-3.30, based  on SOP valuations.  Using our  FY15  earnings  projections,  the  stock  is  currently  trading  at  an  undemanding FY15f  P/E  of  only  6.2x.  We  apply  a  P/E  of  8.8x  for  the  company’s  distribution division, which is 30% higher when compared with Khind Holdings (KHIN MK, NR)’s 6.8x. This is justifiable given  Fiamma’s ability to achieve  much  higher margins.  We
believe  the  stock  is  undervalued,  given  its:  i)  resilient  growth  in  the  distribution business and earnings kicker from property development,  ii) deep landbank value as land parcels were acquired many years ago – hence significant surplus in RNAV, and iii)  high  margins  from  both  the  distribution  and  property  development  businesses.Given  Fiamma’s  net  cash  position  and  consistent  dividend  payout  of  30%,  the company’s  dividend yield of about 3-4% looks sustainable.  We also think there is a scope for a bonus issue, considering its solid balance sheet and shareholders’ funds.This could potentially enhance the liquidity of the stock.




Source: RHB,http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/59980.jsp

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Monday, November 3, 2014

KOpikia talk......Banking

标题:个股分析(OSK HOLDING BERHAD)
作者:Vincenthkb

【OSK HOLDING BHD】
曾经错过20年前稳健成长的PBBANK,后悔当时没有买下,或是我们不是在那个年代的人,所以错过了那美好的机会,现今只能把握当下再找寻下一间类似的PBBANK。错过了当时的PBBANK,那就别要再错过今天的OSK了,预计它未来的成长与前景,可能将会是5年后翡翠闪亮的明日之星。要分析OSK,就要分析RHBCAP与OSK,因为它盈利与RHBCAP有直接的关系。。。

【RHBCAP】
-马来西亚第四大银行
-股价从最高RM10.92跌至今天RM8.39(04-06-14),下跌23.2%,如果要重返当时的高价需要爬30.3%
-第一大股东EPF持有41.43%,第二大股东Aabar Investments PJS持有21.43%(成本价为RM10.80),第三大股东OSK持有9.91%(成本价RM7.36)
-NTA为RM6.6,股价与NTA 倍数为1.28倍,同行超过2倍以上。PE:11.66,相比同行PE:14来得低
-短期立下在2017年的五大目标:1)第一,股本回酬率(ROE)超过14% 2)将新加坡业务营业额贡献提高一倍,至介于5%至10% 3)把海外营运盈利贡献增至超过30% 4)让中小企业或商业银行业务加速成长 5)扩展回教银行贷款至占总贷款资产的30%比重
-更立在2020年要把目前原本海外业绩11%增长至40%,要崛起為大馬首3強銀行(目前資本總資產僅占MAYBANK的34%,以及占CIMB的52%,以及占最接近對手PBBANK的62.5%)和躋身東盟8大銀行
-目前积极从本地开拓业务业务至海外,更要在2017年立足中国市场

【消息与优势】
-有资金雄厚EPF作为靠山
-前期传RHBCAP要私有化,然后与MBSB合拼再上市(RHBCAP和MBSB的大股东都是EPF,所有要合拼绝对不是问题
-如果要合拼,股价至少要RM10.80,因为第二大股东的成本价在RM10.80,不然它一定反对
-宣布与欧洲Espirito Santo投资银行(简称ESIB)签署策略合作伙伴协议,期望透过后者踏出东南亚,进军欧洲市场
-在2014年6月以6亿5113万令吉收购印尼Mestika Dharma银行40%股权,如果收购失败,就会转向新目标。

【分析员的目标价】
Alliance EPS (sen) 81.4(2014) 92.3(2015) 106.1(2016)
CIMB RM11.60
HLG RM9.59
MIDF RM9.50

【RHBCAP结语:】
RHBCAP目标与前景明确,更用行动去拓展海外,以每年平均12%-15%的盈利成长,要回到当年最高的股价RM10.92相信只需要3年的时间,如果EPF再插手合拼或海外进展顺利,那股价可能会更加加速,要到达前期的高点/创新高绝对不是问题。

【OSK】
-2012年4月脱售OSK INVESTMENT BANK给RHBCAP,RHBCAP发行每股发售价为7.36令吉的2亿4500万新股,以及1亿7430万令吉现金收购侨丰控股投资银行业务
-NTA:RM2.68(2013年报),股价如今RM1.67(04-06-14)
-目前80%盈利来自RHBCAP,20%来自于Capital Financing和Property Investment(估计Capital Financing和Property Investment每年能提供盈利RM32m)
-将发展侨丰大厦旁土地的综合商业发展,计划末季动工,预计耗时3至4年,以出租形(未来可以为OSK带来庞大的租金收入),GDV:11亿 GDC:4.5亿-5亿(该地段是在90年代买的)
-每年都会以2次性的派发股息,DY:4.44%左右(RM1.67的股价)

【消息与优势】
-不排除在往后会产业以REIT上市来释放价值(不排除会与OSKP和PJDEV联合产业)
-未来几个月内会宣布涉及新的业务(在2014年4月股东大会提出)
-不排除将收购OSKP或PJDEV作为进军产业新业务的开始(这不困难,因为这两家公司都是丹斯里黄宗华与家人是大股东)
-以RHBCAP的市值RM21368m,OSK持有9.91%的RHBCAP,至少市值也要有RM2217m,但目前市值才RM1618m(不包括旗下的产业价值),所以股价被低估,就如同廉价买到RHBCAP

【OSK结语】
现阶段有RHBCAP和旗下公司带来稳定及有上升空间的盈利之外,其公司更将开发新业务,以及往后不排除将产业以REIT上市,所以前景一片看好。

【综合结语】
OSK的前景一片看好,大股东更不吝啬的每年派股息,加上RHBCAP和OSK本身拥有可实行性的计划与愿景,股价看涨绝对不是难题。但这项是长远的才能达到的目标,所以我列OSK为长期投资,所以适合能持股至少要3年以上的朋友。

Kopikia Talk.....MBSB


(吉隆坡3日言訊)受企業貸款成長所烘託,馬屋業(MBSB,1171,主板金融組)截至2014年9月30日第三季淨利飆44.9%至1億9千236萬8千令吉,推動首9個月淨利增長34%至6億2千195萬7千令吉。
  • 阿末再尼:馬屋業並未如銀行界般注銷壞賬,並今年起就以銀行標準的3個月欠款為準,追款更為艱巨。
9個月淨利達4.64億
馬屋業前期單季與首9個月淨利,分別為1億3千272萬1千和4億6千402萬令吉。
第三季營業額增長5.4%至6億7千890萬令吉;首9個月增長11.2%至20億1千818萬2千令吉。
馬屋業首席執行員兼總裁拿督阿末再尼指出,公司能保持成長動力主要是專注於擴展企業貸款,截至9月止總共發出17億令吉貸款。
“企業貸款佔總貸款比重,由去年12月的9.2%,進一步提高至今年9月的10.9%;企業貸款盈利主要由產業發展領域推動。”基於資產素質健全,他預期企業貸款繼續貢獻更多盈利。
馬屋業淨貸款、透支與融資首9個月增長2.3%至310億令吉,成本收入比由前期19.6%微揚至20.3%,主要是隔夜政策利率(OPR)今年7月調高;業界的平均成本收入比平均為46.6%。
他說,馬屋業提供屋業發展商客戶過橋融資,並在加影與旺沙馬朱設兩處汽車融資樞紐,11月也將在北海設立。預期在高度嚴峻環境中零售、商業貸款業務可保韌力。
呆賬率改善
“呆賬率由6月的5.1%,改善至9月的4.9%,截至今年9月總貸款達368億2千萬令吉。”
阿末再尼強調:“馬屋業並未如銀行界般注銷壞賬,並且今年起就以銀行標準的3個月欠款為準,這使追款更為艱巨,因此以其呆賬比與其他銀行相比有欠公平。”
他指出,該行已完成了縮短與全方位銀行差距的工作,包括提高營運和強化商業能力,並於2年後展開伊斯蘭金融人員培訓工作,使競爭力能以其他銀行平起平坐,便於攫取未來契機。
談到和聯昌集團(CIMB,1023,主板金融組)、興業資本(RHBCAP,1066,主板金融組)進行世紀大整合,他說,馬屋業2015年繼續商業成長計劃和改善營運,而在新實體中將增進價值,在新實體的任何衝擊也將妥善管理和減至最低。
“我們對潛在企業併購感到興奮,在成立國內首間大型伊斯蘭銀行方面,馬屋業將是其中一體,預計從中獲利。”(星洲日報/財經)


點看全文: http://biz.sinchew.com.my/node/104734?tid=19#ixzz3I4cMXYCt 
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DAILY TRADING PARTICIPATION 3 NOVEMBER 2014


DATE 3 NOVEMBER 2014



source from INTER-PACIFIC SECURITIES SDN BHD


Thursday, October 30, 2014

東方新聞 - 網購趨勢無法擋 大馬人手機上網冠全球

(吉隆坡27日讯)谷歌马来西亚的调查显示,大马人最爱用智能手机上网,更名列全球之冠。在选择使用手机或个人电脑上网方面,大马人也更倾向使用手机。

由於智能手机平民化,亚洲人民更加倾向使用智能手机。大马走在这个使用智能手机上网趋势的尖端,在未来,这个趋势將形成一股强大的影响力。谷歌认为,大马商家应开发线上通路,抓紧这庞大的商机。

在当今科技发达,人人都人手一机,在有手机和个人电脑的选择下,大马人民会优先使用手机。

谷歌的一项调查显示,大马是继新加坡、韩国、香港和中国后,爱用手机多於个人电脑的国家。谷歌大马的调查报告显示,在我国的受访者中,手机和个人电脑使用率分別是51%和39%。

智能手机是许多东南亚国家人民拥有唯一可以上网的工具。调查显示,大马有35%或1/3的受访者表示,智能手机是他们唯一用来上网的工具。这让大马在全世界中名列榜首。

相较西方国家,如德国和英国,当地人民只用智能手机上网的比率是罕有的,分別只占7%和6%。

在大马,平均每人有1.2部电子產品,这包括流动电话、智能手机、个人电脑和平板电脑等的电子產品。

询及大马人民购物习惯,大马谷歌董事经理沙吉表示,大马人民善用互联网为產品购买前做研究。在调查报告中显示,马来西亚是在区域中,使用网络研究產品排名靠前的国家。调查显示,在大马有多达81%的受访者表示,在实体商店购物前曾上网先研究一番。

无可否认,网络购物平台,在我国逐渐形成一股无法抵挡的趋势。在部份国家,智能手机已成为最主要的网购工具。这情况在亚太地区中变现非常明显,而且使用智能手机网购的人数正明显的增加。

购物前先上网瀏览產品

隨著行动商务越来越受到消费者的青睞,沙吉对此表示,用智能手机和平板电脑作为购物装置,是时下的趋势,尤其在我国有高达41%的受访者使用智能手机在实体商店购物前,曾上网先研究產品,他奉劝商家应该善用网络平台,与时並进,方能在这个科技时代里站稳脚步。

沙吉补充说,由於智能手机的价格较个人电脑平民化,使用智能手机上网的便利性和方便携带,让亚洲人民更倾向于使用智能手机。他呼吁,大马的商家应该抓紧机会,开发线上通路以满足未来庞大的商机。

网络的重要性对旅游业而言更不言而喻。在我国,有高达86%的受访者通过网络购买机票。紧接著是线上预订酒店房间、线上购衣、戏票和保险產品。

此外,网路购物平台对消费者购买大型產品尤其重要。据谷歌调查报告,我国有多达77%的受访者会上网研究电视机类型,63%的受访者则会研究冰箱或洗衣机。

此外,报告中也提及,隨著智能手机的普及,智能手机也可以充当娱乐休閒的工具。调查显示,大马有多达67%的受访者使用智能手机观看网络视频。大马人民喜爱上网看视频。当中有72%的受访者表示,他们每月至少上网看一次视频,8%的受访者则表示,他们每天至少看一次网络视频。其次是,听音乐和玩网络游戏,分別占55%和50%。

这项调查是大马谷歌联合特恩斯市场研究公司(Taylor Nelson Sofres,简称TNS)向年龄大於18岁的4000个大马人民,採集在2014年对於网络消费者的態度和趋势所做的研究报告。

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