Saturday, May 21, 2016

詹宏志:進入東南亞市場,要各自登山,在山頭集合


台灣網路暨電子商務產業發展協會(TiEA)理事長詹宏志今日在亞太電子商務趨勢論壇中表示,台灣雖然電商規模不大,卻擁有多種模式與多種產業,其中又以中小企業的活潑積極為最大特色。在沒有看到超級巨形公式的環境裡,電商卻有佔零售業11%以上的總額。未來如果能朝整體的發展方向努力,就能透過跨境取得更多機會。
圖說明
(圖說:台灣網路暨電子商務產業發展協會(TiEA)理事長詹宏志指出,台灣的電商成功模式有機會複製到東南亞。圖片來源:郭涵羚攝影。)

中小企業是電商的溫床

在分享PChome Online經營跨境電商的心得時,詹宏志以1988年施振榮邀集資訊業工作者一同討論的策略會議為例,認為如果電商業者也能共同制定出整體的發展策略,就有機會彼此競爭,也一起成長。
他表示,由於台灣的電子商務是靠許多中小企業和個人工作者撐起現在的規模,雖然每個業者看到的市場機會都不同,也不代表中國或其他的市場不重要,但東南亞是台灣業者可以共同努力,形成集體力量的地方
東南亞目前擁有6.5億人口,雖然電子商務普及率不高,以電商佔整體零售比例來看,遠低於台灣的11%(在新加坡只有1%、泰國有0.2%、越南和印尼都是0.1%),許多基礎建設也尚未完備。
東南亞和台灣的經濟環境類似,擁有大量的中小企業。台灣這些積極的中小企業,讓電商能有豐富多元的發展,東南亞也具備這些條件,正是電商發展的溫床。
除此之外,東南亞也有華僑的經濟網路,深入當地脈絡,串聯上游和下游,方便台灣業者的合作和進入。加上東南亞的經濟規模和台灣較接近,比較容易複製台灣電商模式的發展,反而不易複製美國亞馬遜或中國阿里巴巴的形式。

跨境東南亞,要複製生態系

詹宏志更分別討論業者、平台和技術諮詢教育者的策略。
  • 個體業者
    對市場和消費者夠了解,在網站上調整,到當地做流量導入,推出針對當地的服務工作模式。詹宏志認為,雖然貨物在台灣,但資訊能進入當地,把交易建立起來,數字就會愈明朗,就愈清楚知道該如何調整。未來甚至能在當地建立庫存,節省物流成本,或是透過代理等合作方式入境,業者直接成為產品和資訊的提供者,或是成立分公司。
  • 電商平台
    必須要接地,要在地化,但在地化不一定是地理上的,不一定要將組織全盤移動,而是要有屬於當地的語言的介面,有當地的行銷活動。也可以一半一半,把服務端移到在地,後端開發留在技術資源比較豐沛的台灣。
  • 提供技術、諮詢、教育者
    最近有許多東南亞國家邀約台灣的電商專業人到當地做諮詢服務。物流和金流也有機會,因為東南亞目前提供的物流金流,不一定符合電商需球,可以跟當地合作,帶入台灣的電商經驗。
「跨境電商要成為國與國談判的一部分。」總體來看,進入東南亞市場,詹宏志認為要複製生態系,讓上下游一起移動。如果單打獨鬥,代價變大,成功的機率也就變小。平台應該要跟商家和商品集結,物流與金流一起同進。就像是「各自登山,在山頭集合。」朝著共同的方向各自努力。未來不只能集結當地的平台等資源,成為當地的一分子,如果能深入參與當地團隊和網路的發展,也會是更好的方式。
http://www.bnext.com.tw/article/view/id/37582

Thursday, November 6, 2014

KOpikia talk.........................FIAMMA HOLDINGS BHD

FIAMMA HOLDINGS BHD
 I read an articles in i3 Investor.com which publish by KIASUTRADER its interesting...... 
Fiamma stands to benefit from the housing boom of  the last 2-3 years.While  its  distribution  business  is  experiencing  annual  resilient  growth of  4-13%, property development is a new growth driver.  A  few  strategic land parcels  are  now  held  at low  costs, which mean  high development margins. The company is  also in a net cash position. Based on our SOP valuations, the stock could be valued at MYR3.20-3.30.
Distribution:  a  resilient business. Fiamma distributes home appliances and  has  a  property  development  division,  which  indirectly  and  directly ride  on  the  local  property  cycle  respectively.  Despite  the  housing market’s  mini  ups and  downs,  its  distribution  segment  has  achieved  4-13%  growth  per  annum  previously.  It  has  been  strong  in  the  home appliances  market  with  a  wide  distribution  network  nationwide.  This segment typically yields 30-40% gross margins.   
Property  –  a  new  source  of  growth.  Fiamma  will  see  a  new  growth driver  led  by  its  property  development  wing.  The  market  may  not  be aware of this  business  as yet,  but it  contributes  ~25% of total turnover.While  Fiamma’s  existing Centara project is expected to be completed in Oct/Nov 2014, it has >MYR1bn worth of projects in the pipeline, including MYR600m  high-rise  developments  at  Jalan  Yap  Kwan  Seng  (Kuala Lumpur)  and  the  MYR400m VIDA residenz (Johor Bahru). By end-2015, management  also  plans  to  utilise  its  land  behind  Wisma  Fiamma  for development after an existing warehouse there is moved to Klang. 
Low  land  costs  creates  RNAV  re-rating  angle.  The  property development  division  gives  gross  margins  of  30-35%.  This  trend  is expected to continue as Fiamma’s landbank is carried  at low book costs.The most significant contributor to RNAV is the 1.4-acre Jalan Yap Kwan Seng land, with a  land cost of only MYR631psf. The current market price for land parcels in the vicinity is already going at above MYR3,000 psf.
Net cash now.  Fiamma  is currently in  a  MYR54m  net cash position. We expect it to gear up gradually to ~20-30% over the next two years in view of its upcoming slew of high-rise projects. Dividend payout should remain at about 30%, translating into a decent yield of almost 4%.
MYR3.20-3.30  FV.  Fiamma’s  land  parcels  are  in  deep  value  while  the distribution segment provides stable income growth.  Based on our SOP valuations,  the  stock  could  be  valued  at  MYR3.20-3.30.  It  is  currently trading at an undemanding 6.2x FY15f P/E.


A Beneficiary Of The Housing Boom
Company background
Fiamma started up marketing mainly  the  Elba  brand of electrical home appliances  in 1997. Since then, the company has managed to  pick up a number of other brands to widen its distribution reach. Key brands currently carried include  Elba, Rubine, Faber, MEC,  Tuscani,  Haustern  and  EBAC  Home.  It  also  handles  agency  brands  (sole distributorship)  such as  Omron, Whirlpool  and  Braun.  Given the number of brands  it carries,  Fiamma  has  a  wide  product  range  to  cater  for  the  mass  and  high-endmarkets.  These cover  kitchen appliances, pre-fabricated kitchen cabinets, electrical home appliances, bathroom accessories and sanitary ware.  Currently,  the company has  a  nationwide  distribution  network  and  these  products  are  distributed  mainly  to electrical shops/outlets and hypermarkets.
While the distribution business has been generating resilient earnings, management decided  to  have  property  development  exposure  a  few  years  ago.  In  Dec  2008, Fiamma  completed  the  acquisition  of  two  subsidiaries  –  Uniphoenix  Jaya  SB  and Oaksvilla  SB  –  that  own  landbank  in  Kota  Tinggi,  Johor.  Note  that  property development  is  not  a  new  venture  for  the  company,  as  these  subsidiaries  were previously  owned  by  its  founders.  Over  the  years,  Fiamma  acquired  several  other land parcels, such as the 1.12 acres at Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman and 1.4 acres at Jalan  Yap  Kwan  Seng.  Currently,  the  company’s  distribution  and  property development  segments  contribute  75%  and  25%  of  the  company’s  earnings respectively.
Fiamma is now managed by Mr Lim Choo Hong, who is the CEO/group MD of the company.  Choo Hong, Mr  Lim Soo Kong (non-executive director)  and  Mr Ngo Wee Bin are the founder members and major shareholders. Choo Hong has more than 30 years of experience  in  dealing in home appliances. He also has  more than 15 years of expertise in property development.

Distribution segment – a resilient but high-margin business
Given  the  10  brands and  the wide range of products  it carries, Fiamma’s distribution segment has managed to achieve an average growth of 4-13%  per annum  over the past 4-5 years.  Earnings from this business  have  been rather resilient despite the  yo-y changes in residential property units completion in Malaysia.
The  home  ware  products  are  generally  sourced  from  a  few  original  equipment manufacturers  (OEMs)  and  about  half  of  them  are  distributed  via  external  parties. Going forward, some cost savings can be expected when  its  existing warehouse is moved to Klang, Selangor, from Bandar Manjalara, Kuala Lumpur, as all products will then be distributed  via  its  in-house  logistics.  Currently, transportation costs  make up about 4-5% of  sales.  Hence, this move  should  enhance  Fiamma’s  current  30-40% gross margins  by 2-3%. Among all the brands and products,  Omron  and the  cooking range provide the highest profit margins'

More interesting property angle
We think Fiamma’s property angle is more interesting  one  and will contribute a new phase of growth  to the company. We believe that  the market may not be fully  aware of  this  division  as  yet,  due  to  the  limited  number  of  ongoing  projects.  However, Fiamma’s  presence  in  the  property  market  will  likely  be  broadened  going  forward, given that it has over MYR1bn worth of property projects in the pipeline. Currently  itsexisting Centara project at Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahman is  slated for completion  in Oct/Nov,  and  30%  of  the  office  suites  at  Menara  Antara  will  be  kept  as  property investment  assets.  This  ought  to  strengthen  its  pool  of  rental  income-generating assets in addition to the existing Wisma Fiamma building.
By  end-2014,  two  service  apartment  projects  will  be  rolled  out.  This  includes  the MYR600m GDV high-rise developments at Jalan Yap Kwan Seng and the MYR400m VIDA residenz in Johor Bahru. The Jalan Yap Kwan Seng project, with a plot ratio of 10x, is strategically located in the Kuala Lumpur city centre. Development order (DO) for  the  project  was  obtained  two  months  ago  and  it  is  now  pending  finalisation.Indicative pricing for the property units will be at abou t MYR1,200 psf. W e think there is scope for another 8-10% upside,  given the pricing of other recent  launches in the vicinity such as The Mews by Eastern & Oriental (EAST MK, BUY, TP: MYR3.60).VIDA  residenz  is  a  joint-venture  (JV)  project,  whereby  the  land  owner  has  a  30% share of the profits from the development. The project is in a good location within the Johor  Bahru  central  business  district  (CBD)  at  Jalan  Muafakat,  7km  from  the Customs  &  Immigration  Quarantine  Complex  (CIQ).  This  service  apartment  project will be rolled out in two phases.  Phase 1 will comprise 267 units  with a built-up area of 500-900 sqf  at an indicative pricing of MYR500 psf. We believe this  project will be well-received as the pricing is conservative, given the challenging market co nditions in Iskandar Malaysia and considering the fact that new high-rise projects launched by a few Chinese developers recently are mostly going at above MYR750 psf.


To  further  unlock  value  of  its  assets,  management  also  plans  to  redevelop  theexisting  3-acre  warehouse  land  behind  Wisma  Fiamma  in  Bandar  Manjalara  into high-rise service apartments next year. The current warehouse will  be moved to the 6.28-acre  newly-acquired  land  in  Klang  once  its  new  warehouses  are  built.  With a plot ratio of 5x (pending approval), the potential GDV  for the old warehouse land  is estimated at about MYR250-300m, assuming an ASP.  We foresee pent-up demand in this area, as Wisma Fiamma is located within a matured enclave, with schools, commercial precincts and houses already in place.
Management  will  continue  to  grow  the  property  development  division  and  is constantly scouting for landbank. Key targeted areas are still largely within the Klang Valley,  as the market is more sustainable given the  area’s  7.2m population  and its business  activities.  VIDA  residenz  could  be  the  only  Johor  project  over  the  short term, as management holds a cautious stance over the Iskandar Malaysia market.Low land costs create RNAV re-rating angle
The property development division, of which Centara @ Jalan Tuanku Abdul Rahmanis  the major  contributor  currently,  gives  gross  margins  of 30-35%,  ie  similar  to  the distribution wing.  This  trend is expected to stay as Fiamma’s landbank is carried at
low book costs, given that most of the development land parcels were acquired many years ago. The most attractive one is the 1.4-acre parcel at Jalan Yap Kwan Seng, which was acquired in 2007 at a  land cost  of  only MYR631 psf. The current market price for land plots in the vicinity is already going at above MYR3,000 psf.  We have assumed  a market value of MYR3,000  psf in our RNAV estimate, which  we think is reasonable, considering that  Magna Prima (MAGNA MK, NR)  is said to be looking to sell its Lai Meng school land at MYR3,300-3,500 psf. This comes with a plot ratio of 12x.  Meanwhile,  according  to  media  reports,  Oxley  Holdings  (OHL  SP,  BUY,  TP: SGD0.91) paid the Loke Wan Yat estate MYR3,300 psf for a 3.1-acre parcel in Jalan Ampang while the  KSK Group (KSK MK, NR) paid MYR3,299 for a 3.95-acre land in Jalan Conlay.
Besides  these,  Fiamma  also  plans  to  sell  its  86  acres  of  leasehold  land  in  Kota Tinggi,  Johor,  as this parcel is not contiguous with  its  other two parcels of freehold land in  the same area (Taman Kota Jaya) that are currently being developed. Hence,it  will have to incur major  infrastructure  capex  if it starts development there.  Some gains can be expected, given its book cost of only MYR4.50 psf.


Earnings forecasts and valuations
Forecasts.  Fiamma’s  distribution  segment  is  expected  to  maintain  a  single-digit growth in FY14 while the earnings from its property development business will largely drive bottomline growth. Going into FY15, the Centara project will be completed, and earnings from VIDA residenz and  the  Jalan Yap Kwan Seng project will start to kick in. We, therefore, estimate 15% growth in FY15 . This  growth is expected to  be more material in FY16 as progress billings from the property developments come in higher.Valuations.  We value  Fiamma at  MYR3.20-3.30, based  on SOP valuations.  Using our  FY15  earnings  projections,  the  stock  is  currently  trading  at  an  undemanding FY15f  P/E  of  only  6.2x.  We  apply  a  P/E  of  8.8x  for  the  company’s  distribution division, which is 30% higher when compared with Khind Holdings (KHIN MK, NR)’s 6.8x. This is justifiable given  Fiamma’s ability to achieve  much  higher margins.  We
believe  the  stock  is  undervalued,  given  its:  i)  resilient  growth  in  the  distribution business and earnings kicker from property development,  ii) deep landbank value as land parcels were acquired many years ago – hence significant surplus in RNAV, and iii)  high  margins  from  both  the  distribution  and  property  development  businesses.Given  Fiamma’s  net  cash  position  and  consistent  dividend  payout  of  30%,  the company’s  dividend yield of about 3-4% looks sustainable.  We also think there is a scope for a bonus issue, considering its solid balance sheet and shareholders’ funds.This could potentially enhance the liquidity of the stock.




Source: RHB,http://klse.i3investor.com/blogs/rhb/59980.jsp

Tuesday, November 4, 2014

Monday, November 3, 2014

KOpikia talk......Banking

标题:个股分析(OSK HOLDING BERHAD)
作者:Vincenthkb

【OSK HOLDING BHD】
曾经错过20年前稳健成长的PBBANK,后悔当时没有买下,或是我们不是在那个年代的人,所以错过了那美好的机会,现今只能把握当下再找寻下一间类似的PBBANK。错过了当时的PBBANK,那就别要再错过今天的OSK了,预计它未来的成长与前景,可能将会是5年后翡翠闪亮的明日之星。要分析OSK,就要分析RHBCAP与OSK,因为它盈利与RHBCAP有直接的关系。。。

【RHBCAP】
-马来西亚第四大银行
-股价从最高RM10.92跌至今天RM8.39(04-06-14),下跌23.2%,如果要重返当时的高价需要爬30.3%
-第一大股东EPF持有41.43%,第二大股东Aabar Investments PJS持有21.43%(成本价为RM10.80),第三大股东OSK持有9.91%(成本价RM7.36)
-NTA为RM6.6,股价与NTA 倍数为1.28倍,同行超过2倍以上。PE:11.66,相比同行PE:14来得低
-短期立下在2017年的五大目标:1)第一,股本回酬率(ROE)超过14% 2)将新加坡业务营业额贡献提高一倍,至介于5%至10% 3)把海外营运盈利贡献增至超过30% 4)让中小企业或商业银行业务加速成长 5)扩展回教银行贷款至占总贷款资产的30%比重
-更立在2020年要把目前原本海外业绩11%增长至40%,要崛起為大馬首3強銀行(目前資本總資產僅占MAYBANK的34%,以及占CIMB的52%,以及占最接近對手PBBANK的62.5%)和躋身東盟8大銀行
-目前积极从本地开拓业务业务至海外,更要在2017年立足中国市场

【消息与优势】
-有资金雄厚EPF作为靠山
-前期传RHBCAP要私有化,然后与MBSB合拼再上市(RHBCAP和MBSB的大股东都是EPF,所有要合拼绝对不是问题
-如果要合拼,股价至少要RM10.80,因为第二大股东的成本价在RM10.80,不然它一定反对
-宣布与欧洲Espirito Santo投资银行(简称ESIB)签署策略合作伙伴协议,期望透过后者踏出东南亚,进军欧洲市场
-在2014年6月以6亿5113万令吉收购印尼Mestika Dharma银行40%股权,如果收购失败,就会转向新目标。

【分析员的目标价】
Alliance EPS (sen) 81.4(2014) 92.3(2015) 106.1(2016)
CIMB RM11.60
HLG RM9.59
MIDF RM9.50

【RHBCAP结语:】
RHBCAP目标与前景明确,更用行动去拓展海外,以每年平均12%-15%的盈利成长,要回到当年最高的股价RM10.92相信只需要3年的时间,如果EPF再插手合拼或海外进展顺利,那股价可能会更加加速,要到达前期的高点/创新高绝对不是问题。

【OSK】
-2012年4月脱售OSK INVESTMENT BANK给RHBCAP,RHBCAP发行每股发售价为7.36令吉的2亿4500万新股,以及1亿7430万令吉现金收购侨丰控股投资银行业务
-NTA:RM2.68(2013年报),股价如今RM1.67(04-06-14)
-目前80%盈利来自RHBCAP,20%来自于Capital Financing和Property Investment(估计Capital Financing和Property Investment每年能提供盈利RM32m)
-将发展侨丰大厦旁土地的综合商业发展,计划末季动工,预计耗时3至4年,以出租形(未来可以为OSK带来庞大的租金收入),GDV:11亿 GDC:4.5亿-5亿(该地段是在90年代买的)
-每年都会以2次性的派发股息,DY:4.44%左右(RM1.67的股价)

【消息与优势】
-不排除在往后会产业以REIT上市来释放价值(不排除会与OSKP和PJDEV联合产业)
-未来几个月内会宣布涉及新的业务(在2014年4月股东大会提出)
-不排除将收购OSKP或PJDEV作为进军产业新业务的开始(这不困难,因为这两家公司都是丹斯里黄宗华与家人是大股东)
-以RHBCAP的市值RM21368m,OSK持有9.91%的RHBCAP,至少市值也要有RM2217m,但目前市值才RM1618m(不包括旗下的产业价值),所以股价被低估,就如同廉价买到RHBCAP

【OSK结语】
现阶段有RHBCAP和旗下公司带来稳定及有上升空间的盈利之外,其公司更将开发新业务,以及往后不排除将产业以REIT上市,所以前景一片看好。

【综合结语】
OSK的前景一片看好,大股东更不吝啬的每年派股息,加上RHBCAP和OSK本身拥有可实行性的计划与愿景,股价看涨绝对不是难题。但这项是长远的才能达到的目标,所以我列OSK为长期投资,所以适合能持股至少要3年以上的朋友。

Kopikia Talk.....MBSB


(吉隆坡3日言訊)受企業貸款成長所烘託,馬屋業(MBSB,1171,主板金融組)截至2014年9月30日第三季淨利飆44.9%至1億9千236萬8千令吉,推動首9個月淨利增長34%至6億2千195萬7千令吉。
  • 阿末再尼:馬屋業並未如銀行界般注銷壞賬,並今年起就以銀行標準的3個月欠款為準,追款更為艱巨。
9個月淨利達4.64億
馬屋業前期單季與首9個月淨利,分別為1億3千272萬1千和4億6千402萬令吉。
第三季營業額增長5.4%至6億7千890萬令吉;首9個月增長11.2%至20億1千818萬2千令吉。
馬屋業首席執行員兼總裁拿督阿末再尼指出,公司能保持成長動力主要是專注於擴展企業貸款,截至9月止總共發出17億令吉貸款。
“企業貸款佔總貸款比重,由去年12月的9.2%,進一步提高至今年9月的10.9%;企業貸款盈利主要由產業發展領域推動。”基於資產素質健全,他預期企業貸款繼續貢獻更多盈利。
馬屋業淨貸款、透支與融資首9個月增長2.3%至310億令吉,成本收入比由前期19.6%微揚至20.3%,主要是隔夜政策利率(OPR)今年7月調高;業界的平均成本收入比平均為46.6%。
他說,馬屋業提供屋業發展商客戶過橋融資,並在加影與旺沙馬朱設兩處汽車融資樞紐,11月也將在北海設立。預期在高度嚴峻環境中零售、商業貸款業務可保韌力。
呆賬率改善
“呆賬率由6月的5.1%,改善至9月的4.9%,截至今年9月總貸款達368億2千萬令吉。”
阿末再尼強調:“馬屋業並未如銀行界般注銷壞賬,並且今年起就以銀行標準的3個月欠款為準,這使追款更為艱巨,因此以其呆賬比與其他銀行相比有欠公平。”
他指出,該行已完成了縮短與全方位銀行差距的工作,包括提高營運和強化商業能力,並於2年後展開伊斯蘭金融人員培訓工作,使競爭力能以其他銀行平起平坐,便於攫取未來契機。
談到和聯昌集團(CIMB,1023,主板金融組)、興業資本(RHBCAP,1066,主板金融組)進行世紀大整合,他說,馬屋業2015年繼續商業成長計劃和改善營運,而在新實體中將增進價值,在新實體的任何衝擊也將妥善管理和減至最低。
“我們對潛在企業併購感到興奮,在成立國內首間大型伊斯蘭銀行方面,馬屋業將是其中一體,預計從中獲利。”(星洲日報/財經)


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DAILY TRADING PARTICIPATION 3 NOVEMBER 2014


DATE 3 NOVEMBER 2014



source from INTER-PACIFIC SECURITIES SDN BHD